Iran says millions are mourning Khamenei. That’s not the full picture

Iran’s Mourning for Khamenei: Beyond the Official Narrative

A Divided Nation in Grief

Iran says millions are mourning Khamenei – As funeral services unfolded on Sunday surrounding the coffin of Iran’s recently slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, numerous high-ranking officials and three of the ayatollah’s children gathered to pay their respects. Yet certain figures stood out for their conspicuous absence—particularly several former presidents who have maintained strained relations with the present administration. These missing personalities have prompted questions regarding Tehran’s persistent emphasis on national “unity,” a theme that has permeated official discourse throughout the week-long commemoration period.

According to specialists, this carefully constructed narrative aims to communicate to both Washington and Jerusalem that external military intervention has not succeeded—and will not succeed—in dismantling the Islamic Republic or triggering widespread opposition to the government. The funeral activities, which concluded on Thursday with Khamenei’s interment in the northeastern metropolis of Mashhad, featured millions of participants who genuinely support the Islamic Republic’s foundational mission.

However, this represents only part of the reality. With a national population reaching 90 million citizens, Iran presents a dual narrative: segments of the population who mourn deeply, alongside those who remain largely indifferent or even resentful of the proceedings.

Complex Reactions Across the Population

A significant portion of Iranian citizens harbor frustration toward what they perceive as an overly theatrical display, linking Khamenei directly to an authoritarian system that has progressively suppressed opposition over decades. Meanwhile, another considerable segment experiences emotional detachment, with certain individuals viewing the funeral period as a chance to escape overcrowded urban centers.

The missing former public figures further demonstrate the stringent control exercised by event organizers, as supporters of the current administration appear more energized than at any recent point. Meanwhile, the particularly notable absence of Mojtaba Khamenei—Khamenei’s son and designated successor—has generated considerable speculation regarding his current location and status.

The organizing committee of the funeral had the opportunity to project regime unity by including figures such as pro-reform former presidents. Instead, it appears that the committee has decided to go for a tight ship, only core and top officials of the regime.

—Arash Azizi, US-based Iran expert and author of “What Iranians Want”

Expert Analysis on Regime Stability

The new supreme leader has yet to make any public appearance since receiving his appointment following his father’s passing. Arash Azizi, a Washington-based analyst and writer, provided additional insight into the committee’s selective approach to representation.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, observed that the regime has leveraged Khamenei’s funeral to strengthen its foundational support base. She noted that backing within the leadership circle likely stands at historic highs, though she cautioned that this does not necessarily reflect majority sentiment across the entire nation.

Tehran wants to project that it can lose its supreme leader without losing its continuity of governance. Massive crowds and carefully choreographed ceremonies reinforce that message, but the conspicuous absence of key figures also reminds the world that the leadership still feels profoundly vulnerable and is not seeking to cast a broad umbrella.

—Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group

Political Figures and Their Absences

Two reformist former presidents who skipped Sunday’s funeral prayers—Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani—had both previously clashed with Khamenei, according to Azizi’s analysis. Both were effectively removed from power through Khamenei’s influence.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, another former president, experienced a similar trajectory. Initially a hardliner, he eventually fell out with the supreme leader and was consequently marginalized from political life. Nevertheless, Ahmadinejad participated in Monday’s funeral ceremonies, representing an uncommon public showing after years of separation from mainstream politics. Iranian media captured images of him moving through the substantial crowds during the procession.

Wartime Context and Repression

At the beginning of the ongoing conflict, both the United States and Israel placed significant emphasis on the possibility of regime transformation in Iran. Experts maintain that such a scenario remains improbable given Tehran’s established succession mechanisms. Each assassination has typically been followed by a new appointment, frequently resulting in leadership that proves even more hardline than its predecessors.

Analysts identify a complex array of public sentiments within a country where authorities have long employed coercion and suppression to quiet opposition. Since hostilities with the US and Israel commenced earlier this year, Iran has conducted extensive arrest campaigns under the justification of “wartime conditions,” according to Amnesty International’s May assessment.

Iranian authorities have arbitrarily arrested more than 6,000 people, including protesters, journalists, lawyers, human rights defenders, dissidents and members of ethnic and religious minorities.

—Amnesty International, May report

Additionally, judiciary spokesperson Asghar Jahangir announced that over 3,000 individuals had been detained in the previous month for allegedly collaborating with “the enemy,” as reported by the semi-official Student News Network.

Iran had projected that approximately 15 million mourners would attend the funeral ceremonies, a figure that underscores both the regime’s efforts to demonstrate popular support and the genuine engagement of many citizens in the commemorative events.