Viktor Orbán’s Hungarian experiment runs out of steam

Hungary’s Experiment with Orbán Ends

Viktor Orbán’s 16-year tenure was framed as an “experiment” by those who observed its evolution, though even he hesitated to assign it a clear name. The term “illiberal democracy” carried a negative connotation, prompting his allies to favor “national conservatism,” a phrase that resonated more favorably with international audiences. Yet, this label never fully aligned with reality. Orbán, unlike traditional conservatives, embraced a radical path, constantly refining his vision while challenging the status quo.

His defiance was directed at mainstream institutions and the “Brussels bureaucrats,” whom he often mocked. Despite their pushback, Orbán skillfully turned criticism into political leverage. While he positioned himself as an “anti globalist,” he welcomed foreign investments from Germany’s automotive sector and Chinese and South Korean battery manufacturers. Similarly, he championed national sovereignty but failed to defend Ukrainian territorial integrity against Russian aggression. His rhetoric against immigration masked a strategy of quietly attracting labor from Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Ukraine, and Turkey to support industrial growth.

By 2025, the fertility rate in Hungary had dropped to 1.31, a figure unchanged since the Socialists’ tenure in 2010. Orbán’s efforts to incentivize larger families through financial measures proved ineffective. His swift retreat from power on Sunday night signaled a strategic focus on maintaining his public image. As a “majoritarian” democrat, he adhered to the principle that “the winner takes all,” implementing sweeping reforms to reshape Hungary’s judiciary, electoral system, and economy under his party’s control.

A Shift in Public Sentiment

The election result marked a turning point, with Hungarians rejecting further experimentation. Péter Magyar’s victory stemmed from his appeal to a broader national identity, emphasizing inclusivity and less exclusivity. His campaign, which included displaying the Hungarian flag at every event, resonated with voters weary of prolonged conflict. The middle class, which had shrunk under Orbán’s policies, and the growing wealth gap fueled public discontent.

“Tonight we celebrate,” Magyar declared to cheering crowds along the Danube. “But tomorrow, we start work.”

Orbán’s political journey, though marked by persistent victories, now faced a defining challenge. His supporters had long embraced his vision, but the electorate sought a return to stability and a more balanced society. Magyar’s promise of a “normal country” with a clear voice offered a stark contrast to the contested path Orbán had carved over the past decade and a half.