Hungarians decide whether to end 16 years of Orbán rule and elect rival

Hungarians decide whether to end 16 years of Orbán rule and elect rival

Hungary holds its first parliamentary election in 16 years, with voters set to determine the fate of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party. The outcome could reshape relations across Europe, the United States, and Russia, as the nation faces a critical crossroads. While most polls indicate support for Péter Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisza party, Orbán remains resolute in his campaign.

On Saturday night, Orbán addressed thousands of supporters in Budapest’s Castle Hill, vowing,

“We are going to achieve such a victory that will surprise everyone, perhaps even ourselves.”

The rally underscored his determination to retain power despite growing challenges. Voting occurs from 06:00 to 19:00 local time (04:00 to 17:00 GMT), with early results expected in the evening.

Magyar, who split from Fidesz to form his grassroots movement, has positioned himself as a champion of political reform. His party promises to reverse Orbán’s policies, including the judicial system’s autonomy and media ownership, while advocating closer ties with the European Union and a distancing from Russia.

Orbán’s influence extends beyond Hungary, with US President Donald Trump praising him as a “true friend, fighter, and WINNER.” Trump urged Hungarians to “get out and vote” for Orbán, aligning with his campaign’s focus on opposing EU policies and supporting Ukraine. Orbán’s rhetoric, such as “We don’t give our children, we don’t give our weapons and we don’t give our money,” resonates with loyalists, who chant, “we won’t let that happen.”

Despite his popularity, Orbán’s grip on power is being tested. The economy’s struggles and scandals, including Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó’s pre- and post-EU summit conversations with Russia, have eroded confidence. Fidesz’s repeated rejections of €90bn in Ukraine aid have further strained relations with European allies.

Róbert László, an election analyst at Budapest’s Political Capital think tank, notes that Hungary’s three main pollsters predict a “huge lead” for Tisza. However, analysts anticipated a narrowing gap as the election nears, which has not materialized. Magyar insists a two-thirds majority in the 199-seat parliament is essential to undo Fidesz’s constitutional changes.

László highlights shifting public sentiment, citing defections from police, military, and business sectors. Yet, the electoral system, which Orbán acknowledges favors his party, complicates the race. The Nézőpont Institute, one of the few remaining confident in Fidesz’s prospects, identifies 22 “battleground seats” as pivotal. If Fidesz secures these, a victory may still be possible.

While the final count could take days due to delayed vote tallies in certain constituencies, László suggests Tisza’s base is more vocal than Fidesz’s. “Conservative voters are not normally as enthusiastic,” he notes, pointing to a higher proportion of blue-collar supporters in Orbán’s camp. Success for Magyar hinges on decisive wins in key cities, including Györ, Hungary’s sixth-largest town near the Slovak border.