Takeaways from the primary elections in California, Iowa and elsewhere

Key Developments from Primary Elections Across Multiple States

Takeaways from the primary elections in California – Primary elections held on Tuesday across six states, including California, New Jersey, and Iowa, provided early insights into the political landscape heading into the November general election. The outcomes in these races are shaping the dynamics of future contests, particularly in states where the presidential election results in 2024 had a significant impact. While some results are still pending, others have already begun to reveal shifts in voter priorities and party strategies.

California’s Governor’s Race: A Battle for Two Slots

California’s primary elections were marked by a late poll closing time and a deliberate vote-counting process, which means full results will take several days to emerge. The Democratic gubernatorial race is particularly noteworthy, with former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra positioned to secure one of the two contested November slots. Analysts note that votes cast after Election Day in California often skew more Democratic, giving Becerra an advantage. However, the second slot remains uncertain, with Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Democratic billionaire investor Tom Steyer emerging as top contenders.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass also advanced to the November ballot, securing a place in the general election. Initial reports indicated that Republican former reality TV star Spencer Pratt had secured the second spot, but later updates showed Nithya Raman, a progressive city councilmember, gaining ground. This development, combined with the expected Democratic momentum from post-Election Day ballots, has left the second position in limbo. The race underscores the volatility of California’s political scene, where both established figures and underdog candidates are vying for visibility.

Iowa Senate Race: A Democratic Surge

The Iowa Senate race, often overlooked as a lower-profile contest, saw a dramatic shift in favor of Democrats. State Rep. Josh Turek, backed by the Democratic super PAC VoteVets, emerged victorious after spending approximately $10 million on his campaign. His opponent, state Sen. Zach Wahls, attempted to frame the race as a referendum on Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader. Despite some Democratic voters’ discontent with Schumer, this strategy failed to disrupt Turek’s lead, with the candidate winning by 25 points in the final tally.

Turek’s victory sets up a general election matchup against GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is expected to be a strong contender in a state where Trump won by 13 points in 2024. However, Democrats are hopeful that Trump’s recent tariffs could energize voters in Iowa’s agricultural heartland, potentially altering the state’s traditional lean toward the Republican Party. This could be a turning point for the Democratic majority, as flipping multiple states that Trump won by double digits in 2024 is crucial for their electoral strategy.

Trump’s Endorsement Record: Mixed Outcomes

While Trump has been celebrated for his ability to mobilize voters in primary elections, his endorsement record has not been without challenges. In the Iowa governor’s race, his support for Rep. Randy Feenstra initially seemed promising, but Feenstra narrowly lost to businessman Zach Lahn. This marks the first time a statewide Trump-backed candidate has lost a primary in 2026, though similar outcomes occurred in 2022.

“Letting independents lead the opposition is an increasingly popular Democratic strategy in deep-red states.”

Lahn, who received backing from Turning Point Action and former Rep. Steve King, now faces a strong Democratic opponent in state Auditor Rob Sand. The race has been positioned as a potential battleground for Democrats, who see it as an opportunity to challenge the Republican stronghold in Iowa. Meanwhile, Trump’s endorsement in other races, such as Georgia’s gubernatorial and Alabama’s U.S. Senate contests, also resulted in candidates advancing to runoffs, highlighting the mixed impact of his influence.

Montana: A Democratic Breakthrough

Montana, a state Trump won by double digits in 2024, became a focal point for Democratic efforts this week. A campaign to elevate Alani Bankhead, a relatively unknown candidate, succeeded in securing her nomination for the Senate race. Her victory has raised hopes for Democrats, even though she has raised minimal funds and may not run a robust campaign. This could open the door for independent former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar to challenge Republican former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, creating a scenario where Democrats might benefit from a weaker opponent.

Bankhead’s win is significant for her party, as it demonstrates the effectiveness of grassroots strategies in traditionally red states. The Democratic approach of leveraging independents as a counter to Republican candidates is gaining traction, particularly in states where the party faces uphill battles. Bodnar’s ties to former Democratic Sen. Jon Tester add an extra layer of strategy, suggesting potential alliances that could influence the state’s political future.

Rising Star AOC’s Endorsements: Impact Across Districts

The primary season has also been a strong showing for Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose endorsements have yielded positive results in multiple districts. In New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District, her backed candidate Adam Hamawy secured victory, while Sam Forstag won Montana’s 1st District. These wins highlight Ocasio-Cortez’s growing influence and the alignment of progressive voices with local candidates.

California’s 22nd District is another example of AOC’s strategic impact, as her endorsed candidate, political science professor Randy Villegas, currently leads the establishment favorite, state Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains. This development signals a broader trend of progressive candidates challenging traditional power structures, even in states like California where Republicans hold sway. The race also reflects the competition between ideological and pragmatic candidates, with Villegas’s early lead suggesting momentum for the left.

Broader Implications for the November Election

The primary results from these races are not just about individual candidates but also about the larger political strategies at play. In Iowa, the Democratic victory in the Senate race and the potential for a competitive governor’s race could weaken the Republican majority. Meanwhile, California’s delayed results and the presence of both Democratic and Republican contenders for key positions indicate a state that remains a pivotal battleground.

For Democrats, the challenge lies in maintaining momentum while navigating the complexities of state-specific dynamics. The Iowa races, in particular, offer a glimpse of how the party might capitalize on Trump’s vulnerabilities in lower-profile contests. Conversely, Republicans are working to retain their advantages, especially in states where Trump’s 2024 performance was decisive. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether these early gains translate into meaningful shifts in the November election landscape.

As the primary season continues, the interplay between established figures, emerging voices, and strategic endorsements will shape the trajectory of the campaigns. The results from these races are a testament to the evolving nature of American politics, where voter priorities and party tactics are constantly adapting to new challenges and opportunities.