Ukraine’s Ability to Sustain the War Still Depends on Critical US Support
Goldlaner.com – Ukraine faces renewed uncertainty over the durability of its relationship with Washington as Russian attacks continue and political friction grows between Kyiv and US President Donald Trump. While European governments have expanded their financial and military backing, several capabilities supplied by the United States remain exceptionally difficult to replace.
The tension follows a turbulent period in US-Ukraine relations. Trump criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for not securing a negotiated end to Russia’s war, while Ukrainian officials voiced concern that essential military assistance was being held back. A US effort to advance diplomacy included sending an envoy to Norway and Russia, but it produced only a plan to restart trilateral negotiations.
For Ukraine, the immediate question is not simply how much money remains available. It is whether the country can maintain air defenses, battlefield communications, intelligence support and access to advanced weapons if US backing weakens further.
A Shift in the Aid Balance
The Trump administration stopped announcing new aid packages for Ukraine at the start of 2025. Before that point, the United States had provided at least $131.5 billion in assistance since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, making it the largest individual donor during that period, figures from Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy show.
Some weapons ordered from US manufacturers during the Biden administration are still reaching Ukraine, although many of those contracts have now been completed. The reduction in fresh American commitments has forced Kyiv to lean more heavily on its own expanding defense sector and on European partners.
European Union countries and EU institutions together have now contributed at least $228.5 billion since 2022. Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden have been among the leading EU providers of military assistance. The United Kingdom and Norway have also made substantial contributions outside the bloc.
That support has helped Ukraine avoid an immediate collapse in supplies. Yet European assistance frequently involves allies buying American-made equipment and then transferring it to Ukraine. Such transfers can still require approval from the Pentagon, giving Washington influence even where the money originates elsewhere.
Patriot Missiles Illustrate the Vulnerability
The shortage of Patriot interceptors has become one of the clearest examples of Ukraine’s exposure. Zelensky said Friday that deliveries of interceptors intended to defend against Russian ballistic missiles remained delayed despite previous agreements.
“The delivery of interceptors to protect us against Russian ballistic missiles is still delayed. We are waiting for interceptors that were already agreed on, but they are still not coming.”
Ukraine ran out of Patriot interceptors last week. The system is among the limited number of defenses able to destroy ballistic missiles, and the shortage has left major cities and critical infrastructure more exposed. During an overnight attack on Kyiv that continued into Thursday, none of the ballistic missiles that struck the capital were intercepted, suggesting that available Patriot stocks were either exhausted or dangerously low.
Zelensky has identified two urgent priorities for Ukraine’s partners: maintaining pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin through sanctions and supplying more capable missiles.
“Not to lift sanctions from Putin … (and) to give us better missiles.”
American defense manufacturers benefit from foreign purchases of US weapons, a factor that may limit the likelihood of a prolonged block on allied procurement. Still, delays can matter enormously in a conflict where air-defense ammunition is consumed quickly and Russian missile attacks can arrive with little warning.
Capabilities Europe Cannot Quickly Replace
Financial aid is only one part of the relationship. Ukraine remains heavily dependent on US intelligence, communications technology and specialized military systems. Among the most important are Patriot interceptors, Starshield—the military version of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network—and advanced missile-warning technology.
Europe has significant industrial and military resources, but it does not have a ready substitute for every American capability. Decades of reliance on US security guarantees meant that many European countries did not develop certain high-end systems independently.
Max Bergmann, director of the Russia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Europe’s lack of equivalents is partly the result of longstanding US policy.
“That is something Europeans don’t have, and they don’t have it because we have told them for the last 30 years not to develop it … because they can rely on us.”
The broader consequence, Bergmann argued, could extend well beyond individual arms deliveries. If European governments conclude that US commitments can no longer be treated as dependable, they may face pressure to invest more heavily in their own intelligence, missile defense and defense-industrial capacity.
“We’re in a situation where America is proving to everyone in Europe that it simply can’t be relied upon.”
Pressure, Resilience and Civilian Risk
US leverage over Kyiv can broadly be understood through three channels: economic assistance, military supply and political influence. Each can affect Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting, but their impact is not identical. Funding shortfalls can strain public services and reconstruction; weapons shortages can alter battlefield conditions; and political pressure can complicate Kyiv’s diplomatic choices.
Ukraine has demonstrated substantial resilience since the invasion began, adapting its defense production and securing wider European support. Analysts do not expect a reduction in US assistance by itself to erase Ukraine’s willingness to resist. The humanitarian cost, however, could rise sharply if air defenses, intelligence warnings and key technologies are reduced.
“This could be really devastating for Ukraine in the sense that it could cause tremendous economic damage, tremendous loss of civilian life, civilians leaving. But I doubt it’s going to actually break Ukraine’s will to fight.”
Zelensky said this week that Ukraine had, on several occasions, received no US intelligence warning of incoming ballistic missile strikes. Without the usual alerts, residents may not receive air-raid sirens in time to reach shelters before an attack.
That risk underscores why the relationship cannot be measured only in aid totals. European support has become indispensable and has surpassed US contributions collectively, but Ukraine’s most urgent requirements still include systems and intelligence capabilities that Washington uniquely provides. As diplomacy remains uncertain and Russian strikes persist, the continuity of that support may shape not only Ukraine’s military position, but also the safety of civilians far from the front line.
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