Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large

Bowen: Trump’s Call for an Iran Uprising Echoes Iraq’s 1991 Lessons

Years after the 1991 Gulf War, the echoes of George H.W. Bush’s decision to inspire an Iraqi uprising remain fresh in my mind. The event unfolded in a Massachusetts factory, where workers assembled the Patriot missile system—a cutting-edge weapon that would later play a role in both Ukraine and the ongoing conflict with Iran. At the time, the U.S. and its allies were actively engaging in the air campaign to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait, with the ground war set to begin just nine days later. I was stationed in Baghdad, documenting the war’s progress, when the U.S. struck a shelter in Amiriyah, killing over 400 civilians. The Americans and British claimed it was a command center, but the bodies—mostly children, women, and elderly—told a different story. The shelter still smoldered, and I knew the truth.

35 years on, I recall Bush’s speech whenever Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu speak of a “once-in-a-generation” opportunity for Iran’s people to overthrow their government. Back then, Bush visited the Patriot factory to commend its workers, presenting the missile as a symbol of hope. In a brief statement, he urged Saddam Hussein to comply with UN resolutions and suggested the Iraqi military and populace could take action to remove the dictator. The workers cheered, and the president returned to mobilizing public support for America’s first major war since Vietnam. Yet, some Iraqis interpreted the message as a genuine push for rebellion.

“There’s another way for the bloodshed to stop… and that is for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside…”

When Iraq’s army withdrew from Kuwait, a ceasefire allowed Hussein to retain power. Shias in the south and Kurds in the north launched uprisings, believing the U.S. would back them. However, the coalition remained passive, and Hussein’s regime retaliated with a brutal counteroffensive. Thousands of Kurds and Shia Muslims perished, many freezing to death on mountain slopes or succumbing to dysentery. The Americans, British, and others eventually launched a humanitarian mission to rescue the Kurds, but the Shia faced greater hardship. This inaction sowed the seeds for years of instability.

The aftermath of the first Gulf War led to sustained air patrols, permanent military bases, and the rise of Al Qaeda. A young Osama bin Laden, enraged by foreign troops in Saudi Arabia, began organizing the group that would later target the West. Now, in the third Gulf War, the focus shifts to Iran. The U.S. aims to weaken its military and nuclear capabilities, with Israel viewing these as existential threats. Trump’s decision to ally with Israel in this effort mirrors the 1991 strategy, raising concerns that the same pattern could repeat: a call for rebellion without concrete support, leaving Iran’s people to face the consequences alone.