As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?
As Former Nato Chief Warns About Defence Spending, How Much Has the Military Shrunk?
Strategic Defence Review Faces Criticism
Lord Robertson, a former Labour defence secretary and Nato secretary general, has raised concerns about the UK’s recent Strategic Defence Review (SDR) and its impact on national security. He argues that the review’s approach is putting Britain’s defences at risk, stating that “Britain’s security cannot be safeguarded through a continually growing welfare budget.” His critique highlights the disparity between rising welfare costs and underinvestment in military capabilities.
BBC Verify has examined the current state of the UK’s armed forces, revealing significant reductions in personnel since the end of the Cold War. In 1990, the army had 153,000 regular soldiers, but this number has since dropped to 73,790. The 2025 SDR aimed to maintain a minimum of 73,000 regular troops, yet enlistment applications have fallen by approximately 40% in 2025 compared to 2024.
Changes Across Military Branches
The Royal Navy has also seen a decline, with its fleet of major combat ships shrinking from 48 in 1990 to just 11 frigates and 6 destroyers. This reduction has sparked debates about readiness, especially after HMS Dragon took weeks to reach the Gulf to support a RAF base in Cyprus.
The RAF’s aircraft count has similarly decreased, from over 300 combat jets in 1990 to 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 F-35 Lightning II jets today. While these newer models are technologically advanced, their numbers reflect a shift in priorities. Uncrewed aircraft systems, or drones, have emerged as a key component of modern air warfare, a capability absent in 1990.
Experts point to the Ukraine conflict as evidence of drones’ growing importance, noting their ability to surpass traditional artillery in casualties. This has intensified calls for increased investment in such technologies.
Government Response and Procurement Challenges
In response to Lord Robertson’s warnings, the government claims it is set to boost defence spending to the highest level since the Cold War. However, analysts question whether this target is ambitious enough, given the long-term decline in defence budgets since the Berlin Wall fell.
The UK plans to allocate 2.5% of GDP to NATO-qualifying defence spending by April 2027, with an aspiration to reach 3% in the next parliamentary session. By 2035, it aims to dedicate 5% of GDP to national security, split between core defence and initiatives like infrastructure protection and civil preparedness.
According to NATO data, the UK’s 2025 spending of 2.3% of GDP placed it just above the midpoint of member contributions. Yet, only three nations—Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia—surpassed 3.5% of GDP in defence funding that year, with Estonia and Norway nearly matching.
“Over many years, the MoD has regularly experienced difficulties delivering many of its projects to required performance, cost and time.”
The Ministry of Defence holds a significant portion of the government’s largest procurement initiatives, accounting for 47 out of 213 Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) entries in 2024-25. A recent National Audit Office (NAO) report highlighted delays, with 12 projects rated ‘Red’—indicating their completion seems unlikely. The NAO also noted that it takes an average of six and a half years to award contracts for projects exceeding £20 million.
Lord Robertson’s criticism also focuses on the relative funding of defence versus welfare. While defence spending was lower than welfare costs in the mid-1980s, the gap has widened. Welfare spending is expected to reach 4.3% of GDP by the end of the decade, driven in part by rising claims for Personal Independence Payments (PIP). Although mental health conditions may contribute to this trend, independent researchers remain uncertain about its exact drivers.
