The checkered history of US regime change operations

The Checkered History of US Regime Change Operations

Throughout history, U.S. leaders have deployed military power to depose foreign leaders who lost public support. While these interventions have had varying degrees of success, the nation’s track record reveals a complex pattern of ambition and consequence. The current conflict with Iran, which began under President Donald Trump, initially appeared to fit this mold. At the outset, Trump emphasized the goal of eliminating Tehran’s nuclear and conventional military threats, aiming to remove the mullah-led government from power.

A Cold War Legacy of Intervention

From 1947 to 1989, the Cold War era saw the United States attempt to shift power dynamics in 72 instances, according to a 2019 study. Of these, 64 were covert operations conducted by intelligence agencies, with a success rate hovering around 40%. This history underscores the U.S. tendency to prioritize regime transformation, even if the long-term outcomes remain uncertain.

The Iranian Example: From CIA to Islamic Revolution

In 1953, the CIA, in collaboration with Britain’s MI6, orchestrated the ousting of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh. This move reinstated Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who later became a symbol of U.S. influence. However, his regime’s authoritarianism eventually sparked the Islamic Revolution in 1979, which ousted him and replaced his government with a theocratic system now central to today’s airstrikes on Iran.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently clarified that the current conflict is “not a so-called regime change war,” yet the U.S. has consistently used such rhetoric. This contradiction highlights how historical precedents may still shape modern justifications for intervention.

Libya’s Unstable Aftermath

The 2011 Arab Spring ignited hopes for political change across North Africa, particularly in Libya. President Barack Obama’s administration swiftly aligned with opposition groups, including the National Transitional Council, under NATO’s Operation Unified Protector. A U.S. drone strike and a French jet attack on Gadhafi’s convoy preceded his death, but the nation’s post-war landscape has since fractured. Nearly 15 years later, Libya remains a patchwork of competing factions, plagued by persistent unrest.

The Iraq War: A Premature Celebration

Following Saddam Hussein’s downfall in 2003, President George W. Bush declared the “Mission Accomplished” on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln. “The transition from dictatorship to democracy will take time, but it is worth every effort,” he asserted, promising a stable, free Iraq. Yet, the occupation did not deliver peace. Weak institutions and the rise of Shiite militias backed by Iran led to sectarian violence, while the Sunni insurgency gained momentum. This vacuum allowed the Islamic State (ISIS) to emerge as a dominant force, destabilizing Iraq, Syria, and the broader Middle East.

“They believed that regimes like Iraq’s would be relatively easy to replace after they were overthrown,” said U.S. historian Joseph Stieb, critiquing the assumption that liberal democracy would naturally follow military intervention.

Even after the war, the U.S. continued its regime change efforts. Just weeks after Hussein’s fall, “Operation Enduring Freedom” began in Afghanistan. Though the Taliban was swiftly toppled, the U.S.-backed government struggled to maintain control. As international forces, including Germany, scaled back their presence in 2014, the Taliban retook territory, gradually eroding the fragile unity of the post-war administration. Trump’s agreement to withdraw troops in 2020, which Biden later completed, saw the Taliban regain full authority, illustrating the cyclical nature of these interventions.

Legacy of Ambiguity

Whether through covert operations or overt military action, the U.S. has often framed its interventions as necessary for democratic progress. Yet, the persistent instability in regions like Iraq and Libya suggests that regime change is not always a straightforward path to stability. As the current conflict with Iran unfolds, the question remains: will history repeat, or will this intervention mark a turning point in the U.S. approach to global power shifts?