Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
Confidence in Weapon Supplies
President Donald Trump asserted that the United States possesses a “virtually unlimited” arsenal of weapons, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed this sentiment during a visit to US Central Command in Florida. He emphasized that the nation’s stockpiles of both defensive and offensive systems allow for prolonged military operations. Similarly, General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated that precision munitions are sufficient to meet current objectives.
Operation Epic Fury and Immediate Strikes
On February 28, the US initiated Operation Epic Fury in Iran, followed by thousands of strikes within a week. Over 20 weapon systems were deployed across air, land, and sea, targeting multiple locations. In the initial phase, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was reportedly eliminated. Despite Trump’s initial projection of a four- to five-week conflict, he later suggested the campaign could extend further, though he acknowledged gaps in the highest-grade weaponry.
Cost Efficiency and Strategic Concerns
While the US has ample supply of basic munitions, experts highlight challenges with advanced systems. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, noted that Trump’s distinction between weapon grades reveals underlying vulnerabilities. “The cost of operating a fighter jet for an hour equals the price of a Shahed-136 drone,” she observed, underscoring the inefficiency of current strategies. Grieco pointed to Ukraine’s use of cheaper interceptor drones as a potential model, stating the US had tested such tech but not scaled production enough.
“We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” said Hegseth, reinforcing the administration’s stance. “Our stockpiles allow us to sustain this campaign as long as needed.”
Patriot Missiles and Production Delays
The more costly Patriot missiles, priced at around $3 million each, are critical for countering Iran’s ballistic threats. However, Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that these reserves are dwindling rapidly. He estimated that nearly 200-300 Patriots had been used already, with initial stockpiles of 1,000 missiles now significantly reduced. Production delays compound the issue, as Lockheed Martin only delivered 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025. “If you asked for another Patriot today, it would take at least two years to get it,” Cancian explained.
Shorter-Range Weapons and Sustained Operations
For shorter-range projectiles like bombs and Hellfire missiles, the situation appears more stable. Cancian argued that the US has the necessary ground munitions to continue operations for an extended period. Yet, the conflict has seen Iran retaliate with thousands of Shahed-136 drones and hundreds of missiles, testing the limits of US defenses. Despite the pressure, the administration remains optimistic, with Trump’s recent meetings with defense firms signaling efforts to boost high-grade weapon production.
