Exclusive: US military hasn’t conducted standard review of intelligence tied to strike on school in Iran, sources say
Exclusive: US Military Intelligence Review Delayed After Iran School Strike
Exclusive – Three sources with direct knowledge have confirmed that the US military failed to conduct its standard intelligence review following a major strike on an Iranian school. This critical assessment, normally completed within weeks of any significant military operation, has been delayed for several months. The review was designed to thoroughly examine the circumstances surrounding the attack on the educational facility in Iran. While military officials have maintained a cautious stance, the investigation into what happened remains pending within the military command structure.
Missing Battle Damage Assessment Phase
Exclusive reporting reveals that only two of three standard components of the “battle damage assessment” were completed within seven days of the strike. These initial stages successfully confirmed that the munition struck and damaged the intended target. According to the sources, the results verified that the United States was responsible for hitting the Shajareh Tayyiba school in Minab.
However, the third standard review stage was never initiated. This crucial phase typically involves Defense Intelligence Agency analysts who examine the complete collection of satellite imagery and other intelligence materials. Their role is to provide a comprehensive determination regarding the event and how the strike affected broader mission objectives. Sources noted that this review is almost invariably carried out in the immediate period following a notable strike, yet it had not commenced by early July.
Investigation Locked Down by CENTCOM
An independent investigation was separately initiated in March, during which interviews were held with service members connected to the strike. Exclusive sources revealed that the information gathered from these interviews has been “locked down” by US Central Command. Only a small number of officers have been granted access to the details.
“There was no detailed analysis conducted and CENTCOM locked down the investigation/blocked anyone from looking into it,” one of the sources stated.
A Defense Department official communicated to CNN that “the investigation is ongoing.” The official further added, “We have nothing further to announce at this moment.” The sources indicated that the investigation would ultimately help establish responsibility for the mistaken strike.
Conflicting Approaches to Review
Exclusive information shows that the first source told CNN that the decision to launch the investigation should not have prevented the DIA from conducting the more thorough third phase of the review. The source explained that “both could have happened at the same time if they chose to.” An additional DIA review would not, by itself, have determined who was at fault but could have served as evidence, the source added.
A US official told CNN that the internal Pentagon investigation was intended to supersede a traditional third phase assessment. According to this official, both could not happen simultaneously because it was clear after the initial review that the incident required a thorough probe by an independent body outside of CENTCOM and unattached to other agencies that would have had a role in the strike itself.
Outdated Intelligence and Casualties
Exclusive sources confirmed that once the independent investigation findings were submitted to CENTCOM back in April, the subsequent delay was due to a need to examine what happened even further. The official pointed to the fact that the failures contributing to the accidental strike went back years and involved multiple layers of potential missteps.
A week after the strike and after the initial two phases of review, evidence was already beginning to emerge that the US military had accidentally hit the elementary school due, at least in part, to outdated intelligence about the targeted site. The site was believed to be an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval base, sources said. Iranian state media reported that 168 children and 14 adults died in the attack.
The US military would have likely benefitted from a more thorough analysis of the strike in question on several fronts, particularly given the apparent missteps that led to the use of outdated intelligence and broader gaps within the Pentagon’s targeting database that appear to have directly contributed to the mistake. CNN previously reported that senior US military commanders bypassed warnings in critical databases that intelligence about potential targets in Iran was severely out of date and went ahead with approving strikes, including one that hit the school.
The decision by senior commanders to ignore the warnings was made for “expediency,” two of the sources said, in a rush to provide targets at the start of the war. It also directly contributed to the accidental strike on the school, the sources added.
