Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East’s reshuffling is not yet done

Ceasefire or no ceasefire, the Middle East’s reshuffling is not yet done

The recent ceasefire discussions in Pakistan rest on the premise that the U.S. and Iran share a mutual interest in ending the conflict. Yet, trust remains scarce, and the two nations have yet to find a clear area of agreement. Israel’s aggressive actions in Lebanon, escalating the war’s intensity, further complicate the situation. U.S. President Donald Trump has already framed the war in past tense, signaling a desire for an exit strategy. With upcoming events like King Charles’s state visit and a summit with Xi Jinping, as well as the approaching midterm elections, Trump’s administration is under pressure to stabilize the economy before the summer season.

Iran, too, has its own rationale for seeking a pause. Despite its defiant stance and continued ability to deploy missiles and drones, the country faces severe internal and external strain. Cities have stagnated economically, and the regime needs time to recover. The Pakistan-based mediators, tasked with bridging the gap between the U.S. and Iran, face a challenging role. The two sides’ positions are starkly divergent, with Trump’s undisclosed 15-point plan viewed by some as a surrender document rather than a negotiation framework. Iran’s 10-point proposal, meanwhile, lists demands the U.S. has previously dismissed.

“A capital V military victory,” as US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth put it.

The most pressing issue in these talks is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage. Keeping it closed allows Iran to exert economic pressure on global markets, while its re-opening is critical to restoring trade flow. The U.S. and Israel’s strikes on Iran have disrupted this route, making it the focal point of current negotiations. The millions of civilians affected by the war are hoping these talks will lead to a lasting resolution.

Despite early optimism, the war has already begun to shift regional power dynamics. The U.S. and Israel’s attacks have weakened Iran’s military capabilities but not its political structure. The regime’s endurance, even after the loss of key figures like Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, underscores its resilience. His son Mojtaba, who became the new supreme leader, has been absent since the initial strikes, fueling speculation about his condition. The U.S. initially anticipated a swift victory, akin to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, but the situation has proven more complex. The war continues, reshaping the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape in ways that will unfold over time.