Can the US sustain its war in Iran?

Can the US sustain its war in Iran?

The United States has declared confidence in its ability to maintain a prolonged conflict with Iran, citing an abundance of military resources. President Donald Trump asserted that the nation possesses a “nearly inexhaustible” stock of weapons, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized that Iran lacks the capacity to outlast American forces. Yet, the reality of munitions availability raises questions about the feasibility of such claims.

Operation Epic Fury, initiated on February 28, marked the start of a sustained campaign against Iran. In the following days, the US and its allies executed thousands of strikes, utilizing over 20 weapon systems across multiple domains. The operation saw the elimination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in the initial phase. Despite the scale of these actions, the effectiveness of the US’s supply chain remains under scrutiny, particularly concerning high-grade missile systems.

“We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” stated Hegseth during a visit to US Central Command. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as needed.”

Analysts highlight a critical disparity in cost efficiency. While the US has deployed fighter jets equipped with AIM-9 missiles, the expense of operating these aircraft—$450,000 per shot plus $40,000 hourly—underscores the financial strain. According to Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Center, the cost of an hour of fighter jet use equals the price of a single Shahed 136 drone, which Iran has been launching in abundance. “It’s not efficient,” she noted, “It’s not a favorable cost exchange.”

The situation grows more complex with the use of high-end Patriot defense missiles, priced at approximately $3 million each. These are reserved for intercepting Iran’s ballistic missiles, yet their stockpiles are dwindling. Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that 200-300 Patriot missiles have already been expended. “At the beginning, I think there were about 1,000 Patriots,” he explained, “and we’ve used a significant portion of that inventory.”

Lockheed Martin, a key supplier, has only delivered 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025, indicating a potential bottleneck in production. Cancian pointed out, “If you approached the company today and requested one more Patriot, it would take at least two years for it to arrive.” This delay contrasts with the availability of lower-cost alternatives, such as the JDAM kits and Hellfire missiles, which offer more sustainable options for shorter-range engagements.

On March 6, Trump convened with defense manufacturers, announcing plans to boost production of premium weaponry. The White House framed this as a strategic move, but Grieco questioned its urgency, suggesting many agreements had already been finalized. “This felt like a non-announcement,” she remarked, as Lockheed Martin’s commitment to increase Patriot PAC-3 output from 600 to 2,000 annually was already public.

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