How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict

How Depleted Weapons Stockpiles Could Affect the Iran Conflict

US President Donald Trump has asserted that his nation maintains a “virtually unlimited supply” of critical military equipment. In contrast, Iran’s defense ministry emphasizes its ability to endure beyond initial expectations, challenging the US’s projected timeline. While weapon reserves alone may not determine the conflict’s outcome, they play a pivotal role in shaping its trajectory. Ukraine’s experience with Russia highlights that numerical superiority does not always guarantee victory, yet the rate of consumption remains a key concern.

The conflict has seen rapid fire from both parties since its outset. US and Israeli forces have executed over 2,000 strikes, each requiring multiple munitions, according to the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). Meanwhile, Iran has deployed 571 missiles and 1,391 drones. However, many of these have been intercepted, and the sustainability of such intensity depends on the availability of resources. As the war persists, both sides face pressure to replenish supplies faster than they can be manufactured.

Iran’s missile output has declined significantly, with Western officials noting a drop from hundreds to dozens. Before the conflict, it was estimated that Iran held more than 2,000 short-range ballistic missiles. Gen Dan Caine, America’s top commander, reported an 86% reduction in Iranian missile launches since the fighting began. In just 24 hours, US Central Command (Centcom) observed a 23% decrease. Drone strikes also fell by 73%, though Iran had previously mass-produced tens of thousands of Shahed one-way attack drones. The technology was shared with Russia, which has used its version in Ukraine with notable impact. Even the US has adopted similar designs, yet Iran’s production efforts now appear strained.

The US and Israel now hold air dominance over Iran, with most of its defenses destroyed. This has weakened Iran’s ability to retaliate effectively, leaving its air force in question. Centcom suggests the next phase will focus on targeting launch sites, weapon stockpiles, and production facilities. While air superiority may allow for gradual erosion of Iran’s combat readiness, complete destruction of its arsenal remains challenging. Iran’s vast size—three times that of France—means weapons can still be concealed from aerial surveillance.

Historical examples underscore the limitations of air-based warfare. Despite three years of intense bombing, Israel has yet to dismantle Hamas in Gaza. Similarly, Yemen’s Houthi rebels survived a year of US airstrikes, retaining some of their weaponry. The US remains the world’s most formidable military force, with deeper conventional reserves than any other nation. However, its reliance on precision-guided systems, which are produced in limited quantities, complicates sustained operations. Trump’s recent meeting with defense contractors signals efforts to accelerate production, hinting at potential strain on resources.

Gen Caine noted a shift from costly long-range “stand-off weapons” like Tomahawk missiles to cheaper, more accessible “stand-in” options such as JDAM bombs. These can be deployed closer to targets, reducing logistical demands. Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), argues that the US can sustain this pace “almost indefinitely.” Yet, as the war continues, the list of strategic targets dwindles, leading to a natural slowdown in the rate of operations.

“After the initial attack from a distance, the US can now use less expensive missiles and bombs,” Cancian remarked. He highlighted that while JDAM stocks are abundant, air defense systems are scarcer, complicating efforts to neutralize threats. This dynamic may influence how the conflict evolves in the coming months.